CathXS' heaven

Harvard University Commencement Address

J.K. Rowling

Copyright June 2008

As prepared for delivery

President Faust, members of the Harvard Corporation and the Board of Overseers, members of the faculty, proud parents, and, above all, graduates, 

The first thing I would like to say is 'thank you.' Not only has Harvard given me an extraordinary honour, but the weeks of fear and nausea I've experienced at the thought of giving this commencement address have made me lose weight. A win-win situation! Now all I have to do is take deep breaths, squint at the red banners and fool myself into believing I am at the world's best-educated Harry Potter convention. 

Delivering a commencement address is a great responsibility; or so I thought until I cast my mind back to my own graduation. The commencement speaker that day was the distinguished British philosopher Baroness Mary Warnock. Reflecting on her speech has helped me enormously in writing this one, because it turns out that I can't remember a single word she said. This liberating discovery enables me to proceed without any fear that I might inadvertently influence you to abandon promising careers in business, law or politics for the giddy delights of becoming a gay wizard. 

You see? If all you remember in years to come is the 'gay wizard' joke, I've still come out ahead of Baroness Mary Warnock. Achievable goals: the first step towards personal improvement. 

Actually, I have wracked my mind and heart for what I ought to say to you today. I have asked myself what I wish I had known at my own graduation, and what important lessons I have learned in the 21 years that has expired between that day and this. 

I have come up with two answers. On this wonderful day when we are gathered together to celebrate your academic success, I have decided to talk to you about the benefits of failure. And as you stand on the threshold of what is sometimes called 'real life', I want to extol the crucial importance of imagination. 

These might seem quixotic or paradoxical choices, but please bear with me. 

Looking back at the 21-year-old that I was at graduation, is a slightly uncomfortable experience for the 42-year-old that she has become. Half my lifetime ago, I was striking an uneasy balance between the ambition I had for myself, and what those closest to me expected of me. 

I was convinced that the only thing I wanted to do, ever, was to write novels. However, my parents, both of whom came from impoverished backgrounds and neither of whom had been to college, took the view that my overactive imagination was an amusing personal quirk that could never pay a mortgage, or secure a pension. 

They had hoped that I would take a vocational degree; I wanted to study English Literature. A compromise was reached that in retrospect satisfied nobody, and I went up to study Modern Languages. Hardly had my parents' car rounded the corner at the end of the road than I ditched German and scuttled off down the Classics corridor. 

I cannot remember telling my parents that I was studying Classics; they might well have found out for the first time on graduation day. Of all subjects on this planet, I think they would have been hard put to name one less useful than Greek mythology when it came to securing the keys to an executive bathroom. 

I would like to make it clear, in parenthesis, that I do not blame my parents for their point of view. There is an expiry date on blaming your parents for steering you in the wrong direction; the moment you are old enough to take the wheel, responsibility lies with you. What is more, I cannot criticise my parents for hoping that I would never experience poverty. They had been poor themselves, and I have since been poor, and I quite agree with them that it is not an ennobling experience. Poverty entails fear, and stress, and sometimes depression; it means a thousand petty humiliations and hardships. Climbing out of poverty by your own efforts, that is indeed something on which to pride yourself, but poverty itself is romanticised only by fools. 

What I feared most for myself at your age was not poverty, but failure. 

At your age, in spite of a distinct lack of motivation at university, where I had spent far too long in the coffee bar writing stories, and far too little time at lectures, I had a knack for passing examinations, and that, for years, had been the measure of success in my life and that of my peers. 

I am not dull enough to suppose that because you are young, gifted and well-educated, you have never known hardship or heartbreak. Talent and intelligence never yet inoculated anyone against the caprice of the Fates, and I do not for a moment suppose that everyone here has enjoyed an existence of unruffled privilege and contentment. 

However, the fact that you are graduating from Harvard suggests that you are not very well-acquainted with failure. You might be driven by a fear of failure quite as much as a desire for success. Indeed, your conception of failure might not be too far from the average person's idea of success, so high have you already flown academically. 

Ultimately, we all have to decide for ourselves what constitutes failure, but the world is quite eager to give you a set of criteria if you let it. So I think it fair to say that by any conventional measure, a mere seven years after my graduation day, I had failed on an epic scale. An exceptionally short-lived marriage had imploded, and I was jobless, a lone parent, and as poor as it is possible to be in modern Britain, without being homeless. The fears my parents had had for me, and that I had had for myself, had both come to pass, and by every usual standard, I was the biggest failure I knew. 

Now, I am not going to stand here and tell you that failure is fun. That period of my life was a dark one, and I had no idea that there was going to be what the press has since represented as a kind of fairy tale resolution. I had no idea how far the tunnel extended, and for a long time, any light at the end of it was a hope rather than a reality. 

So why do I talk about the benefits of failure? Simply because failure meant a stripping away of the inessential. I stopped pretending to myself that I was anything other than what I was, and began to direct all my energy into finishing the only work that mattered to me. Had I really succeeded at anything else, I might never have found the determination to succeed in the one arena I believed I truly belonged. I was set free, because my greatest fear had already been realised, and I was still alive, and I still had a daughter whom I adored, and I had an old typewriter and a big idea. And so rock bottom became the solid foundation on which I rebuilt my life. 

You might never fail on the scale I did, but some failure in life is inevitable. It is impossible to live without failing at something, unless you live so cautiously that you might as well not have lived at all – in which case, you fail by default. 

Failure gave me an inner security that I had never attained by passing examinations. Failure taught me things about myself that I could have learned no other way. I discovered that I had a strong will, and more discipline than I had suspected; I also found out that I had friends whose value was truly above rubies. 

The knowledge that you have emerged wiser and stronger from setbacks means that you are, ever after, secure in your ability to survive. You will never truly know yourself, or the strength of your relationships, until both have been tested by adversity. Such knowledge is a true gift, for all that it is painfully won, and it has been worth more to me than any qualification I ever earned. 

Given a time machine or a Time Turner, I would tell my 21-year-old self that personal happiness lies in knowing that life is not a check-list of acquisition or achievement. Your qualifications, your CV, are not your life, though you will meet many people of my age and older who confuse the two. Life is difficult, and complicated, and beyond anyone's total control, and the humility to know that will enable you to survive its vicissitudes. 

You might think that I chose my second theme, the importance of imagination, because of the part it played in rebuilding my life, but that is not wholly so. Though I will defend the value of bedtime stories to my last gasp, I have learned to value imagination in a much broader sense. Imagination is not only the uniquely human capacity to envision that which is not, and therefore the fount of all invention and innovation. In its arguably most transformative and revelatory capacity, it is the power that enables us to empathise with humans whose experiences we have never shared. 

One of the greatest formative experiences of my life preceded Harry Potter, though it informed much of what I subsequently wrote in those books. This revelation came in the form of one of my earliest day jobs. Though I was sloping off to write stories during my lunch hours, I paid the rent in my early 20s by working in the research department at Amnesty International's headquarters in London. 

There in my little office I read hastily scribbled letters smuggled out of totalitarian regimes by men and women who were risking imprisonment to inform the outside world of what was happening to them. I saw photographs of those who had disappeared without trace, sent to Amnesty by their desperate families and friends. I read the testimony of torture victims and saw pictures of their injuries. I opened handwritten, eye-witness accounts of summary trials and executions, of kidnappings and rapes. 

Many of my co-workers were ex-political prisoners, people who had been displaced from their homes, or fled into exile, because they had the temerity to think independently of their government. Visitors to our office included those who had come to give information, or to try and find out what had happened to those they had been forced to leave behind. 

I shall never forget the African torture victim, a young man no older than I was at the time, who had become mentally ill after all he had endured in his homeland. He trembled uncontrollably as he spoke into a video camera about the brutality inflicted upon him. He was a foot taller than I was, and seemed as fragile as a child. I was given the job of escorting him to the Underground Station afterwards, and this man whose life had been shattered by cruelty took my hand with exquisite courtesy, and wished me future happiness. 

And as long as I live I shall remember walking along an empty corridor and suddenly hearing, from behind a closed door, a scream of pain and horror such as I have never heard since. The door opened, and the researcher poked out her head and told me to run and make a hot drink for the young man sitting with her. She had just given him the news that in retaliation for his own outspokenness against his country's regime, his mother had been seized and executed. 

Every day of my working week in my early 20s I was reminded how incredibly fortunate I was, to live in a country with a democratically elected government, where legal representation and a public trial were the rights of everyone. 

Every day, I saw more evidence about the evils humankind will inflict on their fellow humans, to gain or maintain power. I began to have nightmares, literal nightmares, about some of the things I saw, heard and read. 

And yet I also learned more about human goodness at Amnesty International than I had ever known before. 

Amnesty mobilises thousands of people who have never been tortured or imprisoned for their beliefs to act on behalf of those who have. The power of human empathy, leading to collective action, saves lives, and frees prisoners. Ordinary people, whose personal well-being and security are assured, join together in huge numbers to save people they do not know, and will never meet. My small participation in that process was one of the most humbling and inspiring experiences of my life. 

Unlike any other creature on this planet, humans can learn and understand, without having experienced. They can think themselves into other people's minds, imagine themselves into other people's places. 

Of course, this is a power, like my brand of fictional magic, that is morally neutral. One might use such an ability to manipulate, or control, just as much as to understand or sympathise. 

And many prefer not to exercise their imaginations at all. They choose to remain comfortably within the bounds of their own experience, never troubling to wonder how it would feel to have been born other than they are. They can refuse to hear screams or to peer inside cages; they can close their minds and hearts to any suffering that does not touch them personally; they can refuse to know. 

I might be tempted to envy people who can live that way, except that I do not think they have any fewer nightmares than I do. Choosing to live in narrow spaces can lead to a form of mental agoraphobia, and that brings its own terrors. I think the wilfully unimaginative see more monsters. They are often more afraid. 

What is more, those who choose not to empathise may enable real monsters. For without ever committing an act of outright evil ourselves, we collude with it, through our own apathy. 

One of the many things I learned at the end of that Classics corridor down which I ventured at the age of 18, in search of something I could not then define, was this, written by the Greek author Plutarch: What we achieve inwardly will change outer reality. 

That is an astonishing statement and yet proven a thousand times every day of our lives. It expresses, in part, our inescapable connection with the outside world, the fact that we touch other people's lives simply by existing. 

But how much more are you, Harvard graduates of 2008, likely to touch other people's lives? Your intelligence, your capacity for hard work, the education you have earned and received, give you unique status, and unique responsibilities. Even your nationality sets you apart. The great majority of you belong to the world's only remaining superpower. The way you vote, the way you live, the way you protest, the pressure you bring to bear on your government, has an impact way beyond your borders. That is your privilege, and your burden. 

If you choose to use your status and influence to raise your voice on behalf of those who have no voice; if you choose to identify not only with the powerful, but with the powerless; if you retain the ability to imagine yourself into the lives of those who do not have your advantages, then it will not only be your proud families who celebrate your existence, but thousands and millions of people whose reality you have helped transform for the better. We do not need magic to change the world, we carry all the power we need inside ourselves already: we have the power to imagine better. 

I am nearly finished. I have one last hope for you, which is something that I already had at 21. The friends with whom I sat on graduation day have been my friends for life. They are my children's godparents, the people to whom I've been able to turn in times of trouble, friends who have been kind enough not to sue me when I've used their names for Death Eaters. At our graduation we were bound by enormous affection, by our shared experience of a time that could never come again, and, of course, by the knowledge that we held certain photographic evidence that would be exceptionally valuable if any of us ran for Prime Minister. 

So today, I can wish you nothing better than similar friendships. And tomorrow, I hope that even if you remember not a single word of mine, you remember those of Seneca, another of those old Romans I met when I fled down the Classics corridor, in retreat from career ladders, in search of ancient wisdom: 

As is a tale, so is life: not how long it is, but how good it is, is what matters. 

I wish you all very good lives. 

Thank you very much. 

“投资者已经开始纷纷抛弃美国资产了。”面对美元的疲软走势，就连美国的外汇交易员也只能无奈地表示。本周，美元兑日元跌至2个月低点，兑英镑跌至6个月低点，兑欧元则跌至4个月低点。

　　在美国政府宣布本周将进行新一轮国债收购招标计划后，已有市场分析人士表示，一旦美元走势继续恶化，该国的通货膨胀水平也极有可能失控，由此也将引发全球至少3-5年的通胀局面。

美国三大贸易伙伴拉响经济衰退警报

　　截至5月21日，美国三大最大贸易伙伴墨西哥、日本和德国分别拉响经济衰退警报。这三个国家的一季度国内GDP折合率均遭遇20年来的最差表现。有市场分析人员表示，作为美国最大的三个贸易伙伴国家，如此严重的经济滑坡，已经凸显出全球衰退的严重程度。

　　本周三，墨西哥政府宣布，其一季度国内生产总值GDP折合年率下降21.5%，是1995年墨西哥比索危机以来的最差表现。据悉，墨西哥政府此前已经向国际货币基金组织申请了470亿美元，提前为自己御寒保暖。

　　就在墨西哥政府宣布GDP下滑的前一天，美国的另一贸易伙伴国家——日本，公布其第一季度经济折合年率下降15.2%。这一数字是日本政府自1955年以来最糟糕的数字。

　　而在上周，美国的第三大贸易伙伴德国也发布了GDP数据，宣布该国一季度GDP下滑，降幅折合年率为14.4%，是1970年来的最差状况。

美元为何跌不停

　　本周三，美元兑所有主要货币全面下跌，其中包括日元。据5月22日亚洲汇市早盘显示，美元兑日元一度跌破93.96日元，创3月19日来的最低水平。当日日本政府随即表示，现在不考虑入市干预以推动日元贬值。除了日元，欧元、英镑、澳元也再创年度新高，其中欧元更是突破了1.3740的关键水平;澳元也开始挑战自去年7月以来跌幅的50%回撤位0.7921美元。

　　有消息称，早在今年5月，美元走势尚不明朗的时候，美国摩根士丹利首席经济学家斯蒂文·罗奇就表示：“美元目前接近波峰的顶点，将在两三年内呈现逐渐下调趋势，并较目前水平会有20%左右的下调幅度。”

　　对于美元的一路下滑，大多数经济学家都认为，市场普遍看淡美元是最主要的原因。外汇市场分析专家孙中正认为，美元兑主要货币跌至年内低点，主要原因是市场对美国预算赤字猛增的担忧使投资者对美国资产兴趣大减。“最近，有关‘金融危机最糟糕时期已经过去’的这种乐观情绪促使投资者结清把美元作为避险投资的头寸，从而使美元走弱。但周四标准普尔宣布调降英国评级展望，投资者将其视为对高负债国家尤其是美国的警告，这使得美元遭受重创。”

　　虽然美国政府周四表示，将保持美元强势，但市场预计，美元指数仍将触及年内最低位。

美元贬值弊大于利

中国发展研究基金会副秘书长、经济学家汤敏认为美元贬值，将可能进一步促使中国成为世界外贸流动的一个很好场所。“但是，如果美元暴跌或者恶性下滑的话，这也不是好事。对中国经济而言，也是一种极大的伤害。”

　　对方表示，目前从世界经济影响局势来看，美元贬值势必会影响全球范围内的进出口格局、资本流动格局、各国外汇储备组合。

　　在这当口，对中国经济而言，风险与危机并存。有分析人士认为，由于美元贬值，人民币相对于欧洲和日本也相当于在贬值，其出口价格依然不变，这一形势将促使欧洲、日本的进口商更加看好中国的产品。

　　国内一家专做汽车零部件加工的外贸公司负责人告诉记者：“我们的订单大多都在欧洲地区，美元下跌的话，我们当然乐意看到美元贬值，因为进口利润会提高几成。”

　　全球可能出现“通胀”局面

　　有资料显示，再通胀可能在经济复苏后1-2年出现。此前，已有不少专家预计2010年第二季度，全世界央行将面临资产价格膨胀可能先于所有领域，尤其是先于经济复苏。

　　5月20日，美联储发布的会议记录致使美元走势再次下跌。此前，美联储曾决定，将最多购买1.75万亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券MBS和美国国债，如果该计划顺利通过，全球金融系统将注入更多的美元。而这一计划，也使得闻风而动的投资者大量抛售美国资产。

　　“一旦美元贬值，各类大宗商品价格就会随着上涨，通胀压力也会越来越大。”上海一外资银行全球经济分析师在接受《华夏时报》记者采访时表示。

　　本周三，纽约市场的主力原油期货合约收于62.04美元/桶，涨幅达3.2%，创下了6个多月以来的新高。而另一主力黄金期货合约收于937.40美元/盎司，涨幅1.2%，盘中最高值为941美元，是3月末以来首次突破940美元。

　　随着黄金、国际原油价格上涨，已有投资者开始囤积大宗商品，以抵御通胀风险。据世界黄金协会统计数字显示，今年第一季度，全球黄金的总需求比去年同期猛增了约四成，其中散户投资增长了33%，ETF及相关产品的需求更是猛增了540%。

　　“如果各国中央银行还是依靠货币发行稀释债务、提振经济的话，那目前我们的一只脚已经踏进了‘通胀’。”上述外资银行分析师表示。

电影名：积木之屋
导演：Kunio KATO(加藤久仁生)
标签：人生

简介：
一個老人住在大海中央。海水不断上涨，老人的房子隨著海平面越蓋越高，而他为了找回心爱的烟斗决定穿潜水衣潜回被海平面覆盖的旧屋中　　
當鏡頭隨著老人越潛越深，舊時回憶也隨之浮現 ...

链接：
土豆：http://www.tudou.com/programs/view/lESSbVwsGs0/
Youtube：Part1www.youtube.com/watch?v=UR7Sz7AA89U  Part2 www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z5qTymotTD8

之前放的那个youku的视屏load起来太慢了，所幸只贴链接了

中国农业银行高级经济师何志成

2009年3月，G20高峰会谈前夕，美元崩溃论再度发酵。全世界包括中国在内的许多媒体评论说，中国的外汇储备将大幅度地缩水。这种市场预期再度占上风，原因是3月18日美联储宣布将购买美国3000亿国债, 购买美国政府担保的机构债7500亿，宣布后48小时，美元指数狂跌300多点,，黄金则在6小时内暴涨67美元。

随后,中国央行行长周小川发表文章，提议建立非国家主权的世界货币。此举立刻被国际市场炒作，认为中国政府对美元已失去信心, 美元将因中国抛售而暴跌。但是，随后的结果是, 美元只在周行长文章出台当天下跌了一点点，随后几天立即大幅度反弹。如同2008年3月,当全世界媒体和金融机构都在分析美元将继续暴跌时,美元却酝酿了后来几千点的大反转。针对许多学者呼吁政府大幅度减少美元储备，一位金融官员评论说:幸亏没让这些人进入决策层，否则我们的外汇储备将亏的更惨——去年中国外汇储备大幅度缩水的最大原因是， 在上半年将美元储备换成了欧元英镑澳元，在140美元以上价位买了不少原油期货。

中国目前的外汇储备约为2万亿美元， 其中1.4万亿是美元资产,包括7500亿美国国债、机构债、非货币资产和保证金存款、一般性存款约计6500亿。由于规模巨大，中国政府实际已成为美元的坐市商。作为美国债券的坐市商, 全世界都盯着其一举一动。难怪周行长文章发表后，立即让国际金融市场的金融大鳄憋住了呼吸。

中国巨额外汇储备的确来之不易。但是，我们不能因为所谓的爱国情绪而作出错误判断。历史上这种例子还少吗？很多人在这个问题上将美国视为不守信誉，将中国比作待宰羔羊，于是中国(弱者)只能最后选择鱼死网破。中美因为外汇储备问题而翻脸，最终结果是什么？轻者是全球金融秩序大乱阵脚，经济衰退持续更久, 重者是是中美爆发重大冲突，全世界跟着遭殃。因此 国际货币基金组织主席 卡恩才忧心忡忡地说，本轮金融危机的结果很可能是战争。
 
在此背景下，我认为，市场要冷静，中国老百姓要冷静，中国的经济学家更要冷静。中国大多数经济学家在本次中国外汇储备安全的讨论中是冷静的，大多数国有银行第一线的外汇交易员也很冷静。他们都不同意在目前阶段大规模抛售美元储备。很多人还支持政府继续购入美元。当然,是在有安全保证的条件下购买——比如购买可根据通胀指数变化调整回报率的债券。

美元储备是至今最安全外汇资产

为什么要购买美国国债？美联储不是已发出弱势美元信号了嘛!我承认,按照传统经济学理论,一个国家的央行是不应该直接购买本国政府债券的，因为这等于鼓励政府扩大财政赤字,加速赤字货币化。但是我反问，综观全世界主要央行，还有几个没买过本国政府债券。照这个逻辑推理下去，中国央行大规模购买美国债券是不是在鼓励美国的赤字政策呢。另外，在经济全球化背景下，死守传统经济学理论，不敢动用财政赤字手段,不敢动用积极货币政策，难道就合理？实际证明，全世界许多国家的政府和央行都在拼命想办法，包括采取量化宽松政策。这些超常规的办法是不是阴谋，是否会导致全球货币体系的崩溃。我看未必。
截至目前，中国的美元储备总体是安全的。在金融危机的背景下，相对非美货币，美元资产是升值的。我们不能想象，去年美元跌势最猛时，如果按照一些经济学家的建议，让央行购买非美元货币比如卢布，现在已跌去接近70%; 购买英镑，已跌去40%，即使是表现稳定的欧元，也跌去25%，而且仍可能继续下跌。

卖了美国国债，买什么？

中国拥有全世界第一的国家外汇储备，是客观现实，也是无奈之举——经济结构不合理，中国购买很多美国国债完全是市场选择，并非中国人热爱美国。外汇储备由于庞大外贸盈余而急剧增加，为抑制国内日益高企的通货膨胀压力和人民币升值压力，中国央行不得不采取通过发行基础货币收购美元。而国内关于美元贬值的吵闹声不断，也使企业和老百姓不敢持有美元。这种结果就使中国政府一家挑起了外汇储备的风险重任，中国几乎所有的美元都集中在政府手中。政府唯一能做的就是购买美元资产和美国债券。2008年,在一片指责声中,中国政府曾尝试“分散投资”，适度减少购买美元国债。结果如何？折戟而归，大面积亏损。
现在争论的另一观点，是主张中国政府大规模地抛售美元资产。既然美联储表态收购。我们为何不顺水推舟,卖些给它们？以上论调似乎有理，其实无法操作。卖出美债，买什么？总不能又换成人民币吧。综观全球主要国家货币,目前要么不够稳定，就是盘子太小，根本不适合中国庞大外汇储备介入。

2008年的教训难道还不够嘛。有人提出“高招”，购买原油期货。我们知道，原油期货一年的交易量仅2万亿至4万亿美元，而外汇市场的交易量每天就有2万亿——4万亿美元。流动性谁大谁小,不言而喻。中国的外汇储备怎么可能舍大求小呢——流动性是安全性的第一要素。另外，原油期货的市场交易根本不用百分之百现金的，它是保证金交易，一般10%即可。如此分析，莫说中国用减持美国国债的现金增加购买原油期货，既使只用增量外汇储备购买原油期货，该投资品的价格也会被炒到300美金一桶！——中国今年外贸盈余大约在2000——2500亿美元，外汇储增量很可能达到3500亿美金。国际原油市场是谁在操纵? 若让中国政府参与一个赌博色彩极浓的市场,，参与一个年波动率高达300%的市场。说轻了，是草率无知。说重了，是牺牲国家利益!

不立危墙之下。预则立，不预则废。早做准备是必须的。但是，制约美元，制约主权货币可能出现的不负责任，不能靠“鱼死网破”的自杀手段。

中国外汇储备想要保值增值，中国在美资产想求得安全，靠吓唬不行，靠哀求不行。唯有人民币保持坚挺，才能制约美元，制约美国(包括全球)的金融大鳄。中国的外汇储备才能完璧归赵。
从中长期看，新的世界货币体系一定不是美元独霸，当然也不可能是非主权货币在全世界流通。目前全世界对美元地位的讨论，说明世界货币体系需要改革,世界各国在呼唤第三股力量的崛起，比如亚洲货币的崛起、人民币崛起。

需要指出的是，人民币改革在2009年已加快，人民币从本国结算货币走向区域性结算货币，再走向国际贸易结算货币是大势所趋。通过货币互换，已有国家在考虑人民币的储备货币地位。
当然, 这需要人民币彻底走向自由兑换。人民币的自由兑换是不是洪水猛兽？我不这样看。我觉得中国政府已有筹划。为何上海要在2020年建成国际金融中心？金融中心不能有没有国际性的货币市场，不能自由买卖人民币的国际金融中心，是难以想象的。我认为，人民币在2020年前是能够实现自由兑换的。这不仅是世界货币体系的需要,也是中国的需要。必须看到，改革世界货币体系是走出金融危机的必要举措，也可避免金融危机重蹈覆辙。中国要成为世界经济大家庭负责任的一员，就需要改革。而这改革的关键，很可能就是人民币自由兑换。

注：作者为中国农业银行高级经济师、资深市场分析师，本文仅代表作者本人观点。